Market Analysis: February 21st, 2025

This week's UK economic data and surveys have left the Bank of England uncertain about the country's economic future. A key business survey, the Purchasing Managers' Index, revealed that businesses have been cutting staff at the fastest rate since the COVID-19 pandemic and nearly as much as during the 2008 global financial crisis. This leaves the Bank of England unsure whether the UK is facing significant job losses or a prolonged period of high inflation.

Global Market Update

Canadian Markets

On Friday, Canada’s TSX dropped significantly, driven by data released by Statistics Canada, which showed that retail sales fell by 0.4% in January. This marked a surprising dip in consumer spending, suggesting that Canadians were pulling back from purchases at the start of the year. The Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem insisted today that a trade war would completely erase any  economic growth in Canada, and cause inflation to surge.

American Markets

U.S. stocks were pummeled today, pushed lower by consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan. Their index of consumer sentiment plummeted to 64.7 at the end of February, far below economists’ expectations and a noticeable drop from January’s 71.7. This sudden decline points to growing unease among U.S. consumers, which is fueled by concerns about the ongoing effects of trade tariffs and other economic pressures. One of the most striking components of the report was the worsening outlook on inflation. The public’s expectations for inflation in the coming year surged from 3.3% last month to 4.3%, suggesting that consumers are anticipating continued price hikes, which could dampen their spending power and hurt broader economic growth.

European Markets

European were sluggish, as investors were digesting a variety of economic data with a focus on the mixed economic signals.  Many analysts were particularly concerned about slower growth and rising inflationary pressures in several European nations, leading to a more cautious outlook for the region. Investors were eyeing Germany’s snap elections on Sunday, which could have far-reaching consequences for the country’s future economic and political landscape. As one of Europe’s largest economies, the outcome of the German elections is closely watched, and any unexpected results could add volatility to already uncertain markets.

UK Markets were flat on Friday, as economic data and surveys have left the Bank of England uncertain about the country’s economic future. A key business survey, the Purchasing Managers’ Index, revealed that businesses have been cutting staff at the fastest rate since the COVID-19 pandemic and nearly as much as during the 2008 global financial crisis. This leaves the Bank of England unsure whether the UK is facing significant job losses or a prolonged period of high inflation.

Corporate Stock News

  • Akamai Technologies Inc: Forecasted 2025 revenue below estimates, attributing it to weak demand for cloud and content delivery services, with quarterly earnings of $1.66 per share surpassing estimates.

  • Alliant Energy Corp: Beat fourth-quarter profit estimates, driven by higher electricity rates, and reported an adjusted profit of 70 cents per share for the quarter.

  • Apple Inc & Tesla Inc: Japanese group proposes Tesla invest in Nissan after merger talks with Honda collapsed; some Nissan board members suggest Tesla and Apple as ideal strategic investors.

  • BlackRock Inc: Resumed meetings with portfolio company leaders after reviewing SEC’s new guidance on ESG-related engagements.

  • Block Inc: Fourth-quarter profit missed estimates due to increased holiday season spending and lagging bitcoin gains.

  • BMW: Does not see the need for special U.S. import tariff negotiations, citing strong relations and a significant U.S. presence.

  • Booking Holdings Inc: Surpassed fourth-quarter profit and revenue estimates, driven by robust international travel demand.

  • Boeing Co: Saw moderate improvement in its supply chain for parts, with Riyadh Air placing major orders for jets.

  • Celsius Holdings Inc: Announced a $1.8 billion acquisition of Alani Nutrition, aiming to expand its portfolio and meet the growing demand for energy drinks.

  • CoStar Group Inc: Offered $1.69 billion to acquire Australian real estate classifieds company Domain, reshaping market dynamics.

  • Consolidated Energy Inc: Beat Wall Street profit estimates, driven by higher electricity rates, while forecasting lower adjusted profits for 2025.

  • Expand Energy Corp: Looking to sell the majority of its Oklahoma City campus, part of downsizing after its 2020 bankruptcy and merger with Southwestern Energy.

  • Ford Motor Co: Recalled 240,510 vehicles over potential seat belt issues, prompting inspections and necessary repairs.

  • Insulet Corp: Reported higher-than-expected fourth-quarter profit, driven by strong demand for insulin pumps, with projected annual revenue growth of 16%-20%.

  • L3Harris Technologies Inc: Began constructing new rocket motor production facilities under a $215.6 million agreement with the Pentagon.

  • Live Nation Entertainment Inc: JPMorgan raised the target price to $170, citing sustained growth.

  • Meta Platforms Inc: Reduced stock option distribution by 10% for employees despite high stock performance, while increasing executive officers’ bonus targets.

  • MP Materials Corp: Reported a wider fourth-quarter loss but beat expectations; production costs were higher due to refining of critical minerals.

  • Newmont Corporation: Surpassed fourth-quarter profit estimates, benefiting from higher gold production and prices, with increased production expected in 2025.

  • Pfizer Inc: Discontinued development of its hemophilia gene therapy due to low demand, refocusing on a new injectable drug for hemophilia A and B patients.

  • Rivian Automotive Inc: Projected lower-than-expected electric vehicle deliveries for the year, with expected deliveries between 46,000 and 51,000 vehicles, while reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue.

  • Royal Bank of Canada: Fined as part of a settlement with several banks over sharing sensitive information about UK government bonds.

  • Sibanye Stillwater Ltd: Suffered its second consecutive full-year loss, though gold production increased due to higher gold prices.

  • Spirit Airlines Inc: Approved bankruptcy debt restructuring, which includes converting $795 million in debt to equity.

  • Standard Chartered: Announced a $1.5 billion share buyback and raised its earnings target following an 18% profit rise.

  • Stellantis NV & Tesla Inc: Italian antitrust agency investigating Stellantis, Tesla, Volkswagen, and BYD for allegedly misleading consumers on electric vehicle performance.

  • Tesla Inc: Recalled nearly 380,000 vehicles due to potential power steering issues, though an over-the-air software update was deployed to address the problem.

  • VICI Properties Inc: Forecast 2025 adjusted funds from operations below expectations, with quarterly revenue slightly exceeding analysts’ expectations.

  • Viper Energy Inc: CEO Travis Stice announced his retirement after 13 years as CEO of Diamondback Energy.

  • Walmart Inc: TD Cowen raised the target price of WMT to $115 following strong fourth-quarter earnings per share.

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